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The Estee Lauder Companies Manager, Demand Planning Statistical Modeling in New York, New York

Manager, Demand Planning Statistical Modeling

Brand: Estée Lauder Companies


Position Summary

The Manager, Demand Planning Statistical Modeling is an individual contributor role and a key enabler for our End to End (E2E) Planning Transformation. Primary role and mission is to provide:

  • Analytical support on statistical forecast modeling and review

  • Modeling support on demand drivers and inputs to generate insights

  • Support demand planners, generate monthly statistically based diagnostics, perform complex numerical calculations, execute statistical performance analyses in support of modeling strategy enhancements, conduct training sessions, and research opportunities for improving statistical modeling accuracy

Key Roles & Responsibilities

  • Analyze statistical demand forecast and compute forecast accuracy metrics (Weighted Forecast Accuracy, Bias, etc.) to make brand/region/affiliate specific forecast input recommendations

  • Validate statistical models by independently running best fit forecasting algorithms and comparing accuracy with statistical plans

  • Maintain and modify sales driver inputs based on information from Regional DP

  • Analyze accuracy of sales driver inputs by relevant affiliate/ regional DPs and provide recommendations based on historical data/ demand trends

  • Responsible for accuracy of demand forecasting models and inputs

  • Recommend changes to statistical forecasting models and input parameters to optimize accuracy and reduce bias

  • Configure dashboards and maintain relevant reports to provide real time insights on forecast performance metrics with ability to drill down to root causes


  • Education: Bachelor’s degree or higher in Statistics, Computer Science, Supply Chain or related field

  • Direct experience: Minimum 3-5 years of related experience in demand planning analysis/statistical forecasting, including researching statistical forecasting.Knowledge of, and experience with forecasting, demand planning, innovation planning and S&OP

  • Desired Master’s degree in Statistics or related field

  • 3 years’ experience in demand planning analysis/statistical forecasting, including researching statistical forecasting

  • C reating and distributing data diagnostics supporting the statistical modeling function

  • Performing high math analysis on large data sets; and organizing, creating and executing process training docs and data diagnostics to be used in global environment

  • Requires experience with SAP, ForecastX, SAS, SQL Server, BEX, Programming Languages VBA and SQL, with Statistical Forecasting Algorithms, Seasonal Linear Regression, Holt-Winters, Exponential Smoothing, Multiple Linear Regression, and with Calculating WFA, Standard Deviations, COV, Forecast Bias, ABC analysis, and Multiple Correlations

  • Knowledge of beauty industry and regional / affiliate market trend


  • Strong organizational skills, with ability to successfully prioritize and manage multiple accountabilities simultaneously

  • Ability to work within and across multiple functional teams, collaborating with Planning, Brand, Finance, S upply Chain and Commercial stakeholders

  • Ability to strategically identify and validate regional industry trends and sales drivers

  • Strong written and oral communication skills

  • Strong attention to detail – ability to accurately manage, update, maintain large datasets

  • Highly analytical – able to conduct complex demand planning or statistical analysis providing high quality / accurate output

Job: Supply Chain - Corporate

Primary Location: Americas-US-NY-New York

Job Type: Standard

Schedule: Full-time

Shift: 1st (Day) Shift

Job Number: 1916649

We are an equal opportunity employer. Minorities, women, veterans, and individuals with disabilities are encouraged to apply. It is Company's policy not to discriminate against any employee or applicant for employment on the basis of race, color, creed, religion, national origin, ancestry, citizenship status, age, sex or gender (including pregnancy, childbirth and related medical conditions), gender identity or gender expression (including transgender status), sexual orientation, marital status, military service and veteran status, physical or mental disability, protected medical condition as defined by applicable state or local law, genetic information, or any other characteristic protected by applicable federal, state, or local laws and ordinances. The Company will endeavor to provide a reasonable accommodation consistent with the law to otherwise qualified employees and prospective employees with a disability and to employees and prospective employees with needs related to their religious observance or practices. Should you wish to apply for this position or any other position with the Company and you believe you require assistance to complete an application or participate in an interview, please contact